子川投资笔记微信公众号，设“前沿”栏目，每日精选AI、脑科学、认知科学、语言学、量子技术、生物技术前沿进展；微软、GOOGLE等科技巨头最新动态；设“经典”栏目，持续更新精译及评注“巴菲特致股东信”系列；“维特根斯坦”哲学系列；设“洞见”栏目：分享关于技术进步、投资哲学、AI哲学与伦理的深度思考。
中译版：
BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD.
810 KIEWIT PLAZA
OMAHA 31, NEBRASKA
致我1963年的合伙人们：
年度文件往来又开始了。随信附上两份1963年的修订合伙协议。请您保留带有通用条款的那份，并寄回另一份单页协议。与去年的协议相比，没有任何实质性变化。这次修订主要是为了容纳几位新合伙人，并在几处用更清晰的语言（希望如此）重新表述现有协议的条款。重新措辞主要集中在第5条通用条款（去年协议的第7段）。我们没有另外制作修订文件，而是将所有变更整合成一份完整的协议文本。
随信还附上两份承诺函（一份供您保留，一份需要寄回），请您在上面注明您在1月1日时是否打算增加或提取投资。我们希望在12月1日前收到协议和承诺函。不过，承诺函可以在年底之前（不是之后）随时修改，所以如果您在已寄出承诺函之后又改变了计划，只需联系我，我会按照您的意愿做出任何更改。
任何提款将在1月1日后立即支付。任何增资必须在1月10日前到账，如果在11月支付，将被视为预付款，在下年底前按6%的利率计息。
请确保您在合伙协议上的签名经过公证。在奥马哈的合伙人如果愿意，可以在我们的办公室办理公证。另外，请务必在承诺函上用圆圈标注您是否希望在1963年按月度收款。为确保每个人都理解这一点，让我再次说明，这些月度付款绝不是保证收益或类似性质的东西。它们是一种方便的定期提款方式，在我们的收益超过6%的情况下，属于收益分配；如果收益不足，则是资本返还。
您将在1月20日前收到1962年报税所需的完整信息。如果您在此之前需要估算税务状况，请告诉我，我会给您一个大致的数字。我们还会在12月底发出一封关于税务的简短信函。
读到这里，您可以看看我们1962年迄今的业绩表现了。截至10月31日，道琼斯工业指数包括股息在内的总体亏损约为16.8%。我们打算在今年年底采用与去年年底相同的方法来评估我们在Dempster制造公司的控股权益。这涉及对资产负债表项目采用各种折扣，以反映我对快速变现可获得价值的判断。去年我们对存货打了40%的折扣，对应收账款打了15%的折扣，固定资产按估计拍卖价值计算等，最终得出每股约35美元的价值。
1962年的亮点是成功地将Dempster的大部分资产几乎按照百分之百的价值转换为现金。例如，去年年底420万美元的库存可能在今年年底降至190万美元，使得这一项目的折扣减少了约92万美元（230万美元减少额的40%）。我会在年度信函中详细讲述这个故事。目前只需说明，采用上述相同的折扣方法，很可能会得出每股至少50美元的年底价值。资产转换工作的程度也许可以用一句话来说明：在1961年11月30日（Dempster的财年结束日），我们有16.6万美元现金和231.5万美元负债，而今年我们预计将有约100万美元现金和投资（合伙企业购买的那类投资），而总负债仅为25万美元。这种情况在1963年似乎还有进一步改善的前景，我们预计明年Dempster的投资组合将大幅扩大。
（译者注：这里反映了巴菲特惯用手法：收购那些管理效率不高但拥有优质资产的企业，通过改善经营将过剩资产变现，再将获得的现金投入到证券市场，最终实现经营性公司向投资性公司的转型。）
如果将Dempster估值为每股50美元，截至10月31日，我们合伙企业的总体收益为5.5%（在有限合伙和普通合伙人分配前）。这比道琼斯指数高出22.3个百分点，如果能保持到年底，将是我们有史以来最大的优势之一。这一优势约60%来自Dempster以外的投资组合，40%来自Dempster的价值增长。
我希望所有合伙人和潜在合伙人都意识到，上述业绩明显属于异常情况，很少会重复出现，如果有的话。这一表现主要是因为在道琼斯指数大幅下跌时，我们的大部分资金投资于受控资产和特殊情况，而不是普通市场。如果1962年道琼斯指数大幅上涨，我们在相对表现上可能会很难看。我们今年迄今的成功绝不反映我有任何判断市场的能力（我从不尝试），而仅仅反映了普通股票的高价部分迫使我转向其他投资类别。如果道琼斯指数继续飙升，我们就会垫底。我完全预期会有些年份我们的操作方法甚至无法匹配道琼斯指数的表现，当然，如果我认为长期来看也会这样，我就会认输转而买入道琼斯指数。
不多说教了，简短总结下：我确实不希望任何人认为过去几年的模式可能会重复；我预计未来平均表现相对道指的优势会小得多。
每封信的结尾都会请您告知任何不清楚的地方。请务必这样做。我们已经配备了秘书人员、新打字机等，我们希望确保所有人理解这封信和协议。
诚挚地，
沃伦·巴菲特
附注：最后交回协议和承诺函并没有奖励，所以请尽快处理。请记住，承诺函可以通过明信片或电话修改——我们只是想在12月31日之前把大部分工作处理完，这样就可以专注于在年底及时完成审计、税务信息等工作。
英文原版：
BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD.
810 KIEWIT PLAZA
OMAHA 31, NEBRASKA
November 1, 1962
TO MY PARTNERS FOR 1963:
Here we go on the annual paper flurry. Two copies of an amended partnership agreement for 1963 are enclosed. The one with the General Provisions attached is to be kept by you and the other single-page agreement should be returned. There are no substantive changes of any sort from last year's agreement. This amendment is merely to allow for a few new partners and in several places to reword in clearer (we hope) language provisions of the present agreement. Practically all of the rewording is in General Provision 5 (paragraph 7 in last year's agreement). Rather than have a separate amending document, we have incorporated the changes into one complete document embodying the entire agreement.
We are also enclosing two commitment letters (one for you--one to be returned) on which you are to indicate your wishes regarding additions or withdrawals at January 1st. We would like to have the agreement and the commitment letter back by December 1st. However, the commitment letter can be amended right up until the end of the year (not after) so if you should have a change of plans and you have already mailed us your commitment letter, all you have to do is get in touch with me, and I will make whatever changes you desire.
Any withdrawals will be paid immediately after January 1st. Any additions must reach us by January 10th, and should they be paid in during November, they will take on the status of advance payments and draw interest at the rate of 6% until yearend.
Please be sure the signature on your partnership agreement is notarized. Partners in Omaha may obtain the notarization at our office if they wish. Also, be sure to let us know by an appropriate circle on the commitment letter whether you wish to receive monthly payments in 1963. In order to be sure everyone understands this, let me again state that these monthly payments are in no sense guaranteed earnings or anything of the sort. They represent a convenient form of regular withdrawal, which to the extent we earn better than 6% are payments from earnings, and to the extent we don't, are payments from capital.
Complete tax information for your 1962 return will be in your hands by January 20th. If you should need an estimate of your tax position before that time, let me know and I will give you a rough idea. We will also send out a short letter on taxes in late December.
Having read this far, you are entitled to a report on how we have done to date in 1962. For the period ending October 31st, the Dow-Jones Industrials showed an overall loss, including dividends received, of approximately 16.8%. We intend to use the same method or valuing our controlling interest in Dempster Mill Manufacturing at this yearend that we did at the end of last year. This involved applying various discounts to the balance sheet items to reflect my opinion as to what could be realized on a very prompt sale. Last year this involved a 40% discount on inventories, a 15% discount on receivables, estimated auction value of fixed assets, etc., which led to an approximate value or $35.00 per share.
The successful conversion of substantial portions of the assets of Dempster to cash, at virtually 100 cents on the dollar, has been the high point of 1962. For example, inventory of $4.2 million at last yearend will probably be about $1.9 million this yearend, reducing the discount on this item by about $920,000 (40% of $2.3 million reduction). I will give this story my full journalistic treatment in my annual letter. Suffice to say at this point that applying the same discounts described above will probably result in a yearend value of at least $50.00 per share. The extent of the asset conversion job can perhaps best be illustrated in a sentence by pointing out that whereas we had $166,000 of cash and $2,315,000 of liabilities at November 30, 1961 (Dempster fiscal yearend), we expect this year to have about $1 million in cash and investments (of the type the Partnership buys) against total liabilities of $250,000. Prospects for further improvement in this situation in 1963 appear good, and we expect a substantially expanded investment portfolio in Dempster next year.
Valuing Dempster at $50 per share, our overall gain (before any payments to partners) to October 31st for the Partnership has been 5.5%. This 22.3 percentage-points advantage over the Dow, if maintained until the end of the year, will be among the largest we have ever had. About 60% of this advantage was accomplished by the portfolio other than Dempster, and 40% was the result of increased value at Dempster.
I want all partners and prospective partners to realize the results described above are distinctly abnormal and will recur infrequently, if at all. This performance is mainly the result of having a large portion of our money in controlled assets and workout situations rather than general market situations at a time when the Dow declined substantially. If the Dow had advanced materially in 1962, we could have looked very bad on a relative basis, and our success to date in 1962 certainly does not reflect any ability on my part to guess the market (I never try), but merely reflects the fact that the high prices of generals partially forced me into other categories or investment. If the Dow had continued to soar, we would have been low man on the totem pole. We fully expect to have years when our method of operation will not even match the results of the Dow, although obviously I don't expect this on any long-term basis or I would throw in the towel and buy the Dow.
I’ll cut this sermon short with the conclusion that I certainly do not want anyone to think that the pattern of the last few years is likely to be repeated; I expect future performance to reflect much smaller advantages on average over the Dow.
Each letter ends with the request that you let me know about anything that isn't clear. Please be sure that you do this. We are all geared up with secretarial help, a new typewriter, etc., and we want to be sure that this letter and agreement are understood by all.
Cordially,
Warren E. Buffett
WEB:bf
P/S: There are no prizes for being the last ones to get in the agreement and commitment letter, so please get to it as soon as possible. Remember the commitment letter can be amended by a postcard or a phone call--we are just trying to get the bulk of the work out of the way well before December 31st so we can concentrate on getting the audit, tax information, etc., out pronto at yearend.
～完～
感谢阅读，麻烦点个👍和❤️，谢谢！
